Midsize Sedan Deathwatch #16: The Decline of the Midsize Class's Middle Class

Ever more minor midsize players continued to see their share of America’s midsize sedan segment dwindle in September 2017. The cause: domination on the part of America’s two major midsize cars.

The all-new 2018 Toyota Camry enjoyed its first full month of meaningful availability in September and produced a 13-percent year-over-year U.S. sales improvement as a result. Meanwhile, Honda is clearing out remaining 2017 Accords in advance of the all-new 2018 Accord’s arrival this fall. Honda’s efforts produced a 10-percent uptick compared with September 2016.

Yet despite the big gains from the two major players, the upper class, the midsize segment still declined 7 percent in September because of sharp declines by many members of the middle class.

That means Camry and Accord market share continues to rise. That means the slice of the market earned by the middle class continues to shrink.

This is the sixteenth edition of TTAC’s Midsize Sedan Deathwatch. The midsize sedan as we know it — “midsizedus sedanicus” in the original latin — isn’t going anywhere any time soon, but the ongoing sales contraction will result in a reduction of mainstream intermediate sedans in the U.S. market.

How do we know? It already has.

It’s not a new story, but it’s a story exacerbated by the transition from generation of the Camry to another. In September 2016, the Camry and Accord combined for 34 percent of the midsize market. One year later, the top-selling duo’s slice shot up not a little bit to 41 percent, a startling shift that came at the expense of vehicles such as the Nissan Altima, Hyundai Sonata, and Volkswagen Passat most of all.

That trio of mid-pack cars owned just 20 percent of America’s midsize sedan segment in September 2017, down seven percentage points from a year ago.

Of course, a market share loss of that magnitude doesn’t come merely because of the success of top-tier models. Nissan, Hyundai, and Volkswagen reported Altima, Sonata, and Passat declines of 34 percent, 36 percent, and 27 percent respectively. Nor were sharp declines reported by that trio the only momentous decreases. The Subaru Legacy tumbled 35 percent, the Mazda 6 was down 25 percent, the transitioning and semi-upmarket Buick Regal tumbled 57 percent. Unexpected were the improvements reported by the Ford Fusion, Chevrolet Malibu, and Kia Optima, a trio of midsize cars that’s still failing to match last year’s pace on year-to-date terms.

Despite a handful of cars that posted notable improvements, the midsize segment’s decline was still twice as harsh as the overall passenger car sector’s slide. Midsize cars accounted for 10.4 percent of America’s new vehicle sales in September 2017, down from 11.9 percent a year ago.

Five years ago, midsize cars accounted for more than 16 percent of U.S. new vehicle sales and the Camry and Accord produced “only” 3 out of every 10 sales in the midsize segment. Now the duo generates 4 out of every 10 midsize car sales.

The rich get richer.

[Image: Hyundai. Chart: The Truth About Cars]

Timothy Cain is a contributing analyst at The Truth About Cars and Autofocus.ca and the founder and former editor of GoodCarBadCar.net. Follow on Twitter @timcaincars and Instagram.