European Car Sales Plummet as Continent Revisits Lockdown Protocols

Matt Posky
by Matt Posky

If you hadn’t already heard, Europe began taking actions to prepare itself for another pandemic-related lockdown. Last month, leadership in Germany and France noted that existing restrictions were “not enough anymore” and began issuing specific citizens “certificates” allowing them to move freely within the country. As you might have imagined, this didn’t exactly bolster automotive sales.

While most of the new restrictions were implemented at the tail end of October, they’ve foreshadowed additional measures introduced as more countries climbed aboard ( like the UK’s second banning of sex with people from outside of the household) and began signaling that automotive sales were about to be routed. Gains made in September look to be completely undone, with Germany’s Federal Motor Transport Authority stating new-car registrations fell by 3.6 percent in October (vs 2019) on Wednesday. But that’s only the beginning of the bad news.

According to a recent market analysis conducted by Bloomberg, sales in Spain dropped by at least 20 percent, with France seeing a 10-percent decline in volume. Italy also saw modest declines that are likely to worsen as lockdown measures continue. The end result saw Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Dean suggesting European car sales will drop by a full quarter this year, which is worse than previous estimates.

While the European Automobile Manufacturers Association won’t have the official numbers posted for almost two weeks, the prognosis is generally poor. State-funded loans and subsidies designed to spur EV adoption are assumed to soften the blow slightly but will be incapable of making a meaningful difference. The outlet has already signaled that it expects the end-of-year forecast to worsen as lockdowns continue.

From Bloomberg:

In the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered a four-week partial lockdown, with non-essential shops including car dealerships to close from Thursday. France issued similar restrictions last week.

While dealerships remain open in Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government has imposed a partial shutdown and is urging citizens to stay at home whenever possible. Austria, Greece and Portugal also have expanded limits for November, while Italy is restricting opening hours of businesses.

The curveball comes as most automakers had actually planned to increase production through the rest of 2020. Unless they’re similarly mandated to go home and wait for the government to change its mind, they’ll be churning out vehicles many people won’t be able to purchase. This could again totally disrupt automotive supply and demand, especially if restrictive measures last through the whole of winter.

[Image: GLF Media/Shutterstock]

Matt Posky
Matt Posky

A staunch consumer advocate tracking industry trends and regulation. Before joining TTAC, Matt spent a decade working for marketing and research firms based in NYC. Clients included several of the world’s largest automakers, global tire brands, and aftermarket part suppliers. Dissatisfied with the corporate world and resentful of having to wear suits everyday, he pivoted to writing about cars. Since then, that man has become an ardent supporter of the right-to-repair movement, been interviewed on the auto industry by national radio broadcasts, driven more rental cars than anyone ever should, participated in amateur rallying events, and received the requisite minimum training as sanctioned by the SCCA. Handy with a wrench, Matt grew up surrounded by Detroit auto workers and managed to get a pizza delivery job before he was legally eligible. He later found himself driving box trucks through Manhattan, guaranteeing future sympathy for actual truckers. He continues to conduct research pertaining to the automotive sector as an independent contractor and has since moved back to his native Michigan, closer to where the cars are born. A contrarian, Matt claims to prefer understeer — stating that front and all-wheel drive vehicles cater best to his driving style.

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  • ToolGuy ToolGuy on Nov 05, 2020

    Yesterday I was bored so my staff and I performed a complete disassembly of a Formula One car and a NASCAR Cup Series car (both last year's models; my resources are not unlimited). Based on that analysis, we have concluded that Europe has nothing to offer the USA in terms of technology or best practices in any area of life.

  • RHD RHD on Nov 05, 2020

    At least Snopes is getting more work, weeding out the manipulative lies and disinformation from what is actually true. The problem is that so many people believe stupid crap, as long as it's aimed at who they perceive to be their "enemies". As an extension to that: Just think how stupid the average American is. Remember, half of them are even stupider than that! (Credit to George Carlin)

    • Lou_BC Lou_BC on Nov 06, 2020

      @RHD - People don't search for the truth, they search to validate their beliefs. Critical thinking requires education and practice. It's quicker and easier to label something as the rhetoric of an enemy.

  • Probert They already have hybrids, but these won't ever be them as they are built on the modular E-GMP skateboard.
  • Justin You guys still looking for that sportbak? I just saw one on the Facebook marketplace in Arizona
  • 28-Cars-Later I cannot remember what happens now, but there are whiteblocks in this period which develop a "tick" like sound which indicates they are toast (maybe head gasket?). Ten or so years ago I looked at an '03 or '04 S60 (I forget why) and I brought my Volvo indy along to tell me if it was worth my time - it ticked and that's when I learned this. This XC90 is probably worth about $300 as it sits, not kidding, and it will cost you conservatively $2500 for an engine swap (all the ones I see on car-part.com have north of 130K miles starting at $1,100 and that's not including freight to a shop, shop labor, other internals to do such as timing belt while engine out etc).
  • 28-Cars-Later Ford reported it lost $132,000 for each of its 10,000 electric vehicles sold in the first quarter of 2024, according to CNN. The sales were down 20 percent from the first quarter of 2023 and would “drag down earnings for the company overall.”The losses include “hundreds of millions being spent on research and development of the next generation of EVs for Ford. Those investments are years away from paying off.” [if they ever are recouped] Ford is the only major carmaker breaking out EV numbers by themselves. But other marques likely suffer similar losses. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fords-120000-loss-vehicle-shows-california-ev-goals-are-impossible Given these facts, how did Tesla ever produce anything in volume let alone profit?
  • AZFelix Let's forego all of this dilly-dallying with autonomous cars and cut right to the chase and the only real solution.
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