Midsize Sedan Demand Is Falling Fast, so What Are Midsize Sedan Prices Doing? They're Rising, and Fast
America’s appetite for intermediate sedans is disappearing, as the queasiness consumers feel when faced with the prospect of buying a family sedan seems to be settled only by the consumption of crossovers.
They go down smooth.
This isn’t news, of course. TTAC began a close, monthly watch of the U.S. midsize sedan sector in August 2016. Since then, the demise of individual midsize nameplates has continued, and the numbers associated with the segment’s sales performance – as we chronicled earlier this month – have grown more frightening.
Yet there are signs that, at least on the retail front, the midsize sedan segment’s American decline could be levelling off. And that moderation is coinciding with something you might not have anticipated: rising average transaction prices.
According to data obtained from J.D. Power, the midsize sedan segment’s share of the automotive industry’s retail sales barely decreased, on a year-over-year basis, in the final quarter of 2018. In fact, December’s flatlining was the closest thing to a retail market share improvement the segment has seen since its share of the market last increased in – get this – the early part of 2013.
Throughout much of 2014, the midsize sedan segment was losing more than 2 percentage points of market share compared with 2013. The sharpness of that market share decline dulled somewhat in 2015 but then grew harsh again, and on a more consistent basis, in 2016. Over the course of much of 2017 and 2018, the segment’s share of the monthly retail market would typically fall by more than 1 percentage point, year-over-year.
That’s a story in and of itself. Perhaps, maybe, possibly, the segment won’t lose 16 percent of its sales in 2019, as it has (fleet-included) in each of the last two years.
But there’s another story tucked within the market share tallies. Automakers are acclimating. It’s clear that predictions of demand restoration brought on by new a new Camry and a new Accord were way off the mark. While Honda and Toyota and numerous others persist, midsize efforts from domestic manufacturers are ceasing or have already ceased. The extraordinarily low volumes generated by some remaining Camry/Accord competitors leave little doubt that others will follow the Mitsubishi Galant, Chrysler 200, and Ford Fusion.
Automakers have caught on. The overwhelming majority of new vehicle buyers don’t want a midsize sedan. “But as midsize cars have been redesigned,” J.D. Power managing director Tyson Jominy says, “OEMs are planning for much lower volumes than before, but with higher margins.”
Average transaction prices in the midsize sedan segment slid less than 1 percent to $21,797 in 2017, according to J.D. Power. Fast forward to 2018, however, and while non-midsize sedan ATPs grew slightly less than 2 percent (to $33,407), the ATP on the average midsize car jumped 7 percent, far outpacing the industry’s price growth.
“The opportunity to find an OEM with a glut of midsize cars that they are desperate to move is drying up very quickly,” Jominy says. As automakers match midsize sedan inventory to demand, incentives decrease and prices rise.
According to Cars.com inventory levels, Honda has less than two months’ supply of Accords; Toyota likely has little more than one month of Camry supply. Those two vehicles account for better than 4 out of every 10 midsize sedan sales in America.
Timothy Cain is a contributing analyst at The Truth About Cars and Driving.ca and the founder and former editor of GoodCarBadCar.net. Follow on Twitter @timcaincars and Instagram.
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- MaintenanceCosts If I were shopping in this segment it would be for one of two reasons, each of which would drive a specific answer.Door 1: I all of a sudden have both a megacommute and a big salary cut and need to absolutely minimize TCO. Answer: base Corolla Hybrid. (Although in this scenario the cheapest thing would probably be to keep our already-paid-for Bolt and somehow live with one car.)Door 2: I need to use my toy car to commute, because we move somewhere where I can't do it on the bike, and don't want to rely on an old BMW every morning or pay the ensuing maintenance costsâ„¢. Answer: Civic Si. (Although if this scenario really happened to me it would probably be an up-trimmed Civic Si, aka a base manual Acura Integra.)
- El scotto Mobile homes are built using a great deal of industrial grade glues. As a former trailer-lord I know they can out gas for years. Mobile homes and leased Kias/Sentras may be responsible for some of the responses in here.
- El scotto Bah to all the worrywarts. A perfect used car for a young lady living near the ocean. "Atlantic Avenue" and "twisty's" are rarely used in the same sentence. Better than the Jeep she really wants.
- 3-On-The-Tree I’ll take a naturally aspirated car because turbos are potential maintenance headaches. Expensive to fix and extra wear, heat, pressure on the engine. Currently have a 2010 Corolla and it is easy to work on, just changed the alternator an it didn’t require any special tools an lots of room.
- El scotto Corolla for its third-world reliability.
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Could it be because we have a new Nissan Altima and Volkswagen Passat, and an almost new Honda Accord and Toyota Camry? New models tend to bring up prices.
Thank you sedan apocalypse (and dieselgate). Black Passat GT. Punchy VR6, great DSG, 40 inches of rear legroom, two-tone pleather, (too big) 19" wheels, moonroof, heated seats, heated mirrors, BLIS, rear cross traffic alert, autonomous emergency breaking, dual zone climate, Android Auto / Apple CarPlay, big gas tank, big ol' trunk. 6 year/72k bumper-to-bumper warranty. $24.6k. That's FWD 1.5L Escape SEL money for a roomier car that can do 60 in under 6 seconds and trap over 100mph (Escape is 9.2 seconds and 81mph). I get why people prefer CUVs, but I'm glad there are some comparatively excellent deals to be had in sedan land.