Should 54.5 MPG Stay or Go? CAFE Crams for Midterms
As regulatory bigwigs gear up for a midterm review of corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) requirements, will the 54.5 mpg target for light-duty vehicles get a haircut, or be deemed too unambitious?
Under a 2012 agreement between the federal government and automakers, cars and light trucks will have until 2025 to meet the 54.5 mpg target, which works out to about 40 mpg on the window sticker (for cars) after you ditch the fancy math. That target isn’t set in stone, and the midterm review will take into account the state of the market — and existing technology — when it reviews its goals for the 2022-2025 period.
The first step of the review is the creation of a draft Technical Assessment Report (TAR), issued by the Environmental Protection Agency, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and California Air Resources Board. That’s underway now, with the TAR due to be released for public comment this June.
A final determination and ruling will occur no later than April 1, 2018.
Even if the CAFE target is trimmed, automakers will face difficult decisions over how to achieve it. Fuel economy savings can be wrung out of a vehicle in many ways — electrification, weight-reducing measures, engine and transmission technology, computing and aerodynamics — but each measure comes with an added cost.
Ford Motor Company CEO Mark Fields has said he wants the review to deal in hard facts, calling the process “challenging.”
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles CEO Sergio Marchionne said last year that he expects “a relaxation of the timeline,” due to the drop in oil and gas prices.
Despite the willingness of automakers to produce vehicles that achieve CAFE targets, high-mileage vehicles often fail to resonate with buyers (and not just hybrid vehicles, which have seen sales sink in recent years).
Last year, a study by the Consumer Federation of America concluded that the 2025 target was doable, given recent advances by automakers.
[Sources: Automotive News, Wall Street Journal]
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The targets should be relaxed. They can be met however at a lot of added cost, most of which is passed on to the consumer. Most people don't make this connection and simply assume the rising cost of vehicles is due to inflation or being screwed. Nevermind consumer preference.
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